Bangkok’s condominium market is facing turbulent times, exacerbated not only by earthquake fears leading to an expected drop in sales, but also by a looming wave of property bond redemptions worth more than 266 billion baht between April 2025 and December 2026.
Bangkok’s condominium market has been hit by unexpected turbulence caused by earthquake fears, leading to an expected drop in sales. This, coupled with the already existing economic challenges, poses serious challenges for Thailand’s property sector. The huge volume of property bonds, mostly high-yield and unrated, maturing between April 2025 and December 2026 (more than 266 billion baht), is forming a ticking time bomb, threatening mass defaults. The memory of the March 28 earthquake has not only served as a reminder of the disaster, but also a harbinger of financial troubles for developers.
Thailand’s economy in 2025 is under pressure from all sides, including a slowdown in global growth, natural disasters, and unfavorable US trade policies, which are hurting exports and leading to lower GDP forecasts.
Despite the government’s stimulus measures, such as lower fees and relaxed LTV rules, they have come too late and have failed to prevent a deterioration in market confidence and liquidity. The first quarter figures confirm the pessimistic scenario: property transfers fell short of the planned figures, down 32% to 32 billion baht from the target of 47 billion. The earthquake that struck in late March has been a catalyst for consumers to postpone purchase decisions and temporarily halt construction work. In response, financial institutions have begun to tighten lending conditions, indicating a potential crisis that could spill over into the bond market and worsen an already difficult situation.
According to Prasert Taedullayasathit, president of the Condominium Association of Thailand, a serious threat to the Thai property market is looming. A whopping 266 billion baht in property bonds will be due between April 2025 and December 2026. Worryingly, a significant portion of these bonds are considered high-risk, high-yield or unrated, and even investment-grade bonds are having trouble attracting investor confidence.
This situation creates a potentially catastrophic scenario. The lack of new capital flowing into the system could lead to the first major property bond default in the Thai market. The consequences of such a default could be widespread, triggering a domino effect that would seriously undermine investor confidence and spread risk throughout the financial system. That is why three major real estate associations have made urgent proposals to the government, highlighting one critical need: liquidity.
Bold and decisive action is needed to address this issue. This is not just a minor adjustment; it requires a full-scale economic intervention. The real estate sector is calling for immediate measures, including affordable loans, easing of lending rules by the Bank of Thailand, and the establishment of special refinancing programs. The aim of these measures is to quickly inject liquidity into the sector and prevent a potential systemic collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for the entire Thai economy.
Bangkok’s condominium market has been hit by unexpected turbulence caused by earthquake fears, leading to an expected drop in sales. This, coupled with the already existing economic challenges, poses serious challenges for Thailand’s property sector. The huge volume of property bonds, mostly high-yield and unrated, maturing between April 2025 and December 2026 (more than 266 billion baht), is forming a ticking time bomb, threatening mass defaults. The memory of the March 28 earthquake has not only served as a reminder of the disaster, but also a harbinger of financial troubles for developers.
Thailand’s economy in 2025 is under pressure from all sides, including a slowdown in global growth, natural disasters, and unfavorable US trade policies, which are hurting exports and leading to lower GDP forecasts.
Despite the government’s stimulus measures, such as lower fees and relaxed LTV rules, they have come too late and have failed to prevent a deterioration in market confidence and liquidity. The first quarter figures confirm the pessimistic scenario: property transfers fell short of the planned figures, down 32% to 32 billion baht from the target of 47 billion. The earthquake that struck in late March has been a catalyst for consumers to postpone purchase decisions and temporarily halt construction work. In response, financial institutions have begun to tighten lending conditions, indicating a potential crisis that could spill over into the bond market and worsen an already difficult situation.
According to Prasert Taedullayasathit, president of the Condominium Association of Thailand, a serious threat to the Thai property market is looming. A whopping 266 billion baht in property bonds will be due between April 2025 and December 2026. Worryingly, a significant portion of these bonds are considered high-risk, high-yield or unrated, and even investment-grade bonds are having trouble attracting investor confidence.
This situation creates a potentially catastrophic scenario. The lack of new capital flowing into the system could lead to the first major property bond default in the Thai market. The consequences of such a default could be widespread, triggering a domino effect that would seriously undermine investor confidence and spread risk throughout the financial system. That is why three major real estate associations have made urgent proposals to the government, highlighting one critical need: liquidity.
Bold and decisive action is needed to address this issue. This is not just a minor adjustment; it requires a full-scale economic intervention. The real estate sector is calling for immediate measures, including affordable loans, easing of lending rules by the Bank of Thailand, and the establishment of special refinancing programs. The aim of these measures is to quickly inject liquidity into the sector and prevent a potential systemic collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for the entire Thai economy.
