According to experts, the new building market in Russia will face a significant increase in prices in the coming years. According to the President of the GC 'Osnova' Alexander Ruchev, the increase in prices may reach 30-40% by the end of 2025.
The main factors putting pressure on prices are the high key rate, the increase in the cost of construction and labor, as well as the reduction in the volume of new housing supply. An additional incentive for price growth may be the flow of household funds from bank deposits to real estate, expected with a decrease in the key rate.
At the same time, the CEO of 'FSK Development' Dmitry Trubnikov expects a more moderate increase in prices in 2025 at the level of 15%, but emphasizes the risk of a supply shortage on the market within two years, caused by the cautious approach of developers to the launch of new projects.
Sberbank analysts predict a moderate increase in prices on the real estate market, assuming that the dynamics will be comparable to the previous year. Natalia Zagvozdina from SBER KIB emphasizes that one should not expect a sharp jump in the cost per square meter. Confirmation of restrained growth is also provided by data from Dom.RF, showing a slight increase in prices on the primary market in January 2025, which, taking into account inflation, even turned into a slight decrease in real terms. At the same time, price growth was observed mainly in the segments of standard and comfort-class housing, while business and elite housing demonstrated a decrease in cost. This indicates differentiated market dynamics, where supply and demand for housing classes form differently directed price trends.
