Dubai's residential property market demonstrated robust growth in Q3 2025, supported by strong macroeconomic indicators, population growth, and investor confidence. A total of approximately 55,300 sales and purchase transactions were completed, representing a 17.1% increase year-on-year. This impressive growth was primarily driven by strong activity in the primary (off-plan) market.
According to the latest report from Cavendish Maxwell, the primary property market set a new record, recording 42,000 transactions, a 23.6% increase year-on-year. This segment accounted for 76% of total market activity, despite a decline in new project launches during the quarter. Interestingly, the share of resale transactions in the primary market declined to 6.1% of total activity, down from 9.7% a year earlier.
In contrast, the off-plan market in Dubai demonstrated more moderate growth. The number of transactions decreased by 5.4% compared to Q2 2025, and increased by only 0.6% year-on-year. This may indicate price sensitivity among buyers or a short-term market correction.
The total value of purchase and sale transactions in Q3 2025 reached AED 138 billion. This is a 6.3% decrease compared to Q2, primarily due to a decrease in the value of transactions in the primary market. Despite continued growth in primary sales, the total value of the primary market decreased by 7.9%. This is explained by the increased share of apartment sales, which are typically priced lower than villas and townhouses.
Nevertheless, the market showed significant year-on-year growth: transaction values in both the primary and secondary markets increased by 18.8% and 15.4%, respectively, confirming the overall positive trend in Dubai's real estate market. In the third quarter of 2025, the real estate market experienced a noticeable shift: transactions involving off-plan properties accounted for a remarkable 76% of total activity, a significant increase from 72% a year earlier. This trend demonstrates the growing appeal of projects in the early stages of development, primarily due to attractive payment terms and incentives offered by developers. However, the growing gap between new builds and completed housing raises questions about the future balance of supply and demand. With the primary market continuing to dominate, attention is gradually shifting to construction completion dates, the pace of new developments, and potential market developments.
Delivery in the third quarter of 2025 was below expectations, with approximately 9,400 units delivered, significantly below the projected 22,800 units and only 41.3% of the planned figure. Despite this, the total number of units delivered in the first nine months of the year reached 28,100, representing a 6% increase compared to the previous year. Separately, construction cycles are also noted to have shortened: in 2025, they averaged approximately 880 days, significantly down from 1,340 days in 2023, indicating an acceleration in project delivery.
A significant replenishment of the market is expected in the fourth quarter of 2025, with 48,200 units delivered, and by 2028, approximately 366,000 units are projected to be delivered, with the majority of these delivered in 2026 and 2027. While the total supply by 2028 of 366,000 units may at first glance raise concerns about market oversaturation, a more detailed analysis reveals that this will not necessarily lead to market imbalance. On the contrary, this forecast indicates a healthy normalization of the real estate market, underscoring its resilience and potential for further growth. The upcoming supply increase, while potentially leading to some slowdown in recent price growth, actually signals market maturity. This reflects a shift toward more sustainable development models characterized by longer cycles and an increasing focus on green construction. Rather than a sign of trouble, this forecast highlights the market's shift toward more stable and long-term growth, rather than short-term blips. The Dubai residential real estate market continues to demonstrate impressive growth, reflected in a 16.1% year-on-year price increase. This upward trend, which continues quarter-on-quarter with growth of 4.5%, is driven by strong demand from both end-buyers and investors. However, price dynamics are uneven, with some areas experiencing double-digit growth, while others are experiencing more moderate growth. A similar trend is observed in the rental market, which grew by 4.4% quarter-on-quarter and 10.9% year-on-year. Despite a slight slowdown in annual growth compared to previous periods, the rental market remains active, although its growth is now more manageable thanks to the Smart Rental Index and increased supply.
Dubai's luxury real estate segment is also showing growth, increasing by 2.4%. In Q3 2025, approximately 430 transactions were concluded, which, despite a 50.2% decrease in volume compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to activity in the luxury off-plan market, still exceeds last year's figures. This segment, while accounting for just 0.8% of total transactions, generates a significant 11.6% of total value, highlighting its significant market impact. The influx of global capital and Dubai's status as an attractive international hub are expected to support robust demand for luxury real estate. The ultra-luxury real estate segment is particularly noteworthy, with 65 transactions valued at AED 5.9 billion recorded in Q3 2025, representing significant growth in both number and value – up 25% and 45%, respectively, year-on-year.